Snow Shovels Needed In Minnesota’s New ‘Tug-Of-War’ Winter Forecast

Saturday, December 21 is officially the first day of winter, but everyone in Minnesota knows it'll likely look and feel like winter long before that day arrives.

Of course, last year was not a normal winter as December was a record-breaking month for warmth, wetness, and snowlessness, highlighted by a holiday heat wave that brought record-breaking temperatures and precipitation.

The mild winter continued in Minnesota, and Wisconsin, which was not the norm in many ways. Minnesotans had only to remember the previous winter of 2022-2023 to know what was possible.

That winter, Duluth had its snowiest winter on record, with 140.1 inches of snow, while the Twin Cities had their third snowiest winter on record, with 90.3 inches. So, just what can we expect this winter?

Most forecasters agree that it'll likely fall somewhere between the extremes of the winters of 2022-2023 and 2023-2024 and a usually reliable source just updated its overall winter outlook in Minnesota.

U.S. Winter Forecast For The 2024-2025 Season

On October 14, Accuweather released its winter forecast for the upcoming season and it says the following 3 factors played an important role:

1. La Niña. This phenomenon happens when water temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain below the historical average for an extended period. This can significantly influence weather patterns across North America, including the trajectory of snowstorms.
2. Polar Vortex. Data from past winters with a similar setup to the upcoming season would indicate that February is the most likely time frame for the polar vortex to blast bitterly cold air across the eastern U.S.
3. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern and northeastern Pacific. Experts predict water temperatures in the Gulf will be higher than historical averages, which can translate to mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.

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When it's all said and done, it'll be a 'bookend winter' in Minnesota.

Upcoming Minnesota Winter To Bring 'Tug-Of-War' Of Conditions

Accuweather says Minnesotans will need snow shovels early in the winter, but they could sit and collect dust during part of the season with winter weather patterns playing tug-of-war between mild and rainy, and cold and snowy.

Overall, an uptick in snow is likely across parts of the Midwest, including Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan. However, the snow will be broken up by pauses in the cold, wintry weather, especially in the middle of the season, as milder air from the Pacific flows across the country.

December is expected to bring short blasts of cold air that will trigger lake-effect snow, and that snowfall could also impact areas farther away from the lakes, which is not typical of early-season winter storms. So plan on using your shovels early this winter.

A Backend Surge To Winter Expected

The opening weeks of 2025 are expected to bring big changes as a new weather pattern will promote milder air and less snow across the eastern half of the nation.

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However, a backend surge to winter will bring the potential for multiple snowstorms from the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and through the Northeast. So people in Minnesota and Wisconsin shouldn't be fooled by that expected long pause in wintry weather as the upcoming winter could go out with a big, snowy bang.

The Accuweather forecast is a little different from what the Old Farmers Almanac recently predicted. It said that it'll be a 'mild, dry' winter for Minnesota and much of Wisconsin.

Whatever Old Man Winter has in store for us, we will be ready and hoping we can get our snowmobiles out more than once this year.